For the past two years, Toronto's condo market has been one of the most challenging segments in Canadian real estate. A flood of pre-construction completions, softening investor demand, and higher borrowing costs created a perfect storm. But new data from April 2026 is raising an important question: has the bottom finally arrived?
Here's an honest breakdown of what the numbers are telling us — and what it means if you're thinking about buying or selling a condo.
The April 2026 Condo Numbers
The year-over-year price number (down 6.3%) is still negative. But the month-over-month trend is pointing up. Sales are rising. And that combination — rising sales, prices stabilizing month-to-month while still below year-ago levels — is often what a market bottom looks like in real time.
Why Condos Got So Cheap
The condo correction has three main drivers, and understanding them matters for knowing whether the recovery is real:
1. Pre-construction completions flooding supply. A wave of condo projects purchased in 2020–2021 at the peak of pre-construction enthusiasm completed and started delivering units in 2023–2025. Many investors who bought pre-construction found that market rents hadn't kept pace with their carrying costs, so they listed for sale — adding thousands of units to an already-elevated inventory.
2. Rental market normalization. When interest rates started rising in 2022, investors who could still rent their units were okay. But as market rents in Toronto softened from 2024 highs (average 1-bedroom rents dropped from $2,800+ to around $2,200–$2,400), the math on investor-held condos got worse. More selling pressure followed.
3. Buyer hesitation. First-time buyers who might otherwise have entered the condo market sat on the sidelines waiting for rates to fall and prices to bottom. That buyer absence amplified the price decline.
Why This Looks Like a Bottom
When prices are down 6.3% year-over-year but sales volume is up 8.6% year-over-year — that's the market telling you: buyers are coming back at these prices. The inventory that was causing the pressure is starting to be absorbed.
There are three concrete signals that point toward a market floor:
- Sales outpacing price expectations. The fact that more condos sold in April 2026 than April 2025 — even with prices lower — shows price-sensitive buyers are re-entering.
- Month-over-month price recovery. Up 2.4% from March to April. That's the direction that matters for near-term momentum.
- New listings not accelerating. If sellers were panicking or forced to sell en masse, we'd see a surge in new listings. That's not what the data shows for condos.
What Condo Buyers Should Know Right Now
If you're a buyer looking at condos in Toronto, you are in the best purchasing position of the last five years. Here's how to think about it:
Buy Now Arguments
- Prices 6.3% below year-ago levels — meaningful discount
- Sales trend is improving — less window for negotiation ahead
- BoC rate at 2.25% — stable, predictable carrying costs
- Population growth continues driving long-term rental demand
- New supply pipeline shrinking — fewer launches in 2025–2026
Wait Considerations
- Year-over-year prices still negative — not confirmed off bottom yet
- Rental yields still tight — cash flow challenging for investors
- Further pre-construction completions still coming in 2026
- End-user buyers slower to return than speculators
What Condo Sellers Should Know Right Now
If you own a Toronto condo and are thinking about selling, the spring 2026 window is the most active since 2022. The question isn't whether to sell — it's whether to sell now versus waiting for prices to recover further.
The honest answer: no one can tell you with certainty whether condo prices will be higher or lower 12 months from now. What we do know is that active buyer demand in April 2026 is meaningfully higher than it was six months ago, and listing into a market with improving sales velocity gives you better odds of a clean transaction than listing into a declining market.
If your condo is investor-held and the math on carrying costs is painful, listing in the spring 2026 market — when buyers are active — is likely a better outcome than holding through another winter. If you're an owner-occupant with no financial pressure to sell, you can afford to wait and let prices recover.
The CBC Question: "Has the Market Hit Its Bottom?"
CBC News ran a story with this headline in May 2026, and the expert consensus was cautious: signs of stabilization are emerging, but a strong recovery is unlikely to happen quickly. The structural oversupply from pre-construction completions will take time to fully clear. Long-term, Toronto's population growth and chronic under-building of housing are powerful tailwinds. Short-term, the condo market is still digesting years of speculative excess.
The Bottom Line
Based on April 2026 data, the GTA condo market shows classic bottom-formation signals: rising sales, month-over-month price recovery, and no acceleration in new listings. Year-over-year prices are still negative, meaning the bottom hasn't been definitively confirmed yet.
For buyers: this is a high-quality entry point at prices well below recent peaks, with manageable rates and improving market conditions. For sellers with flexibility: spring 2026 is a better window than the past 18 months.
Thinking about buying or selling a condo in Toronto, Durham, or Niagara? Jerold can pull specific condo comps for any building or neighbourhood and give you a realistic picture of where values are heading.
Call (647) 291-3755Sources: CBC News — Has Toronto's Condo Market Hit Its Bottom? · TRREB April 2026 Market Watch · TD Economics — GTA Condo Market Outlook. All figures in Canadian dollars.