Prices have shifted significantly since the 2022 peak — and not uniformly across Southern Ontario. Some markets have corrected sharply, others have held firmer than most people expected. If you're trying to understand what a home actually costs in 2026, region-by-region data is the only honest starting point.
The numbers below reflect February 2026 TRREB Market Watch data. This is not forecast or opinion — it's what homes actually sold for last month in each region, paired with the market conditions that explain those prices.
GTA Overview
The GTA average of $1,009,000 masks significant variance between regions. Interest rate context matters here: the Bank of Canada overnight rate sits at 2.3%, with prime at 4.5% and 5-year fixed mortgage rates around 6.09%. These rates are substantially lower than the 2023 peak but still meaningful constraints on purchasing power relative to 2020-2021 conditions.
The overall GTA is firmly in buyer's market territory. The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) sits at 33.6% — anything below 40% is a buyer's market by TRREB's own definition. Inventory is the highest it has been since 2012, and average days on market have expanded from roughly 8 days in early 2022 to 36 days today.
City-by-City Breakdown
| City / Region | Average Price | Days on Market | Market Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| City of Toronto | $1,019,000 | 36 days | Buyer's |
| York Region | $1,163,000 | 37 days | Buyer's |
| Halton Region | $1,146,000 | 38 days | Buyer's |
| Peel Region | $934,000 | 35 days | Buyer's |
| Durham Region | $850,000 | 26 days | Balanced-to-Buyer's |
| Hamilton | $750,000 | 54 days | Buyer's |
| Niagara Region | $572,000 | 54 days | Buyer's |
A few things stand out immediately. Durham Region is moving significantly faster than the rest — 26 days on market vs. 36+ everywhere else — indicating that its relative affordability is creating genuine competition at certain price points. Hamilton and Niagara both sit at 54 days on market, reflecting softer demand and more price flexibility for buyers.
Where Are Prices Headed?
Most Southern Ontario markets are down 5-10% year-over-year as of February 2026. The condo segment has been hit hardest — downtown Toronto condos are down approximately 8% YoY, driven by a wave of investor-owned units returning to the market as pre-construction completions pile up.
The rate environment is expected to remain relatively stable through the rest of 2026. The Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut dramatically further, which means affordability improvements from rates alone will be modest. Entry-level and 905 markets have proven the most resilient — buyers have been gravitating toward detached freeholds outside the downtown core, particularly where commute infrastructure makes them viable.
The good news for buyers: this is not 2020. There is no fear of missing out, no artificially compressed supply. The inventory sitting on the market right now is genuine choice for buyers who are financially prepared.
Which City Makes Sense for You?
- If you want affordability: Niagara, Oshawa, Hamilton. These three markets offer the lowest entry prices in Southern Ontario, with the most negotiating room in the current environment.
- If you want resale liquidity: Durham Region specifically — tighter supply, faster days-on-market, and a strong SP/LP ratio mean you can get in and out without prolonged holding periods.
- If you want prestige and long-term investment appreciation: Halton and York Region have consistently held value over long cycles. Entry prices are high, but so are the fundamentals — school districts, infrastructure, and income demographics.
- If you want urban lifestyle access: Toronto is still the only true urban core. The entry price is the highest, the condo market is soft right now, but freehold detached in established Toronto neighbourhoods rarely loses value over a 10-year horizon.
Want a custom breakdown for your budget? Jerold can run the numbers with you — free, no obligation.
Call (647) 291-3755Bottom Line
This is the best buying window in five years for buyers who are financially ready. Active inventory in the GTA is the highest since 2012. Sellers across most segments are negotiating — price reductions, condition acceptance, and closing flexibility are all back on the table in ways they simply were not in 2021 and 2022.
The key qualifier is "financially ready." The stress test at 8.09% still controls your qualification ceiling, and buyers who stretched to their maximum in 2021 are the ones now struggling. Buyers who are buying within their means, with proper pre-approval and a clear understanding of carrying costs, are finding this to be a genuinely favorable market.
If you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to fall further — the data suggests the bottom is likely behind us in most markets. What remains is a window of elevated inventory, negotiating room, and absent bidding wars. That window may not last indefinitely.